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The key takeaways from this are that it is perfectly plausible to believe that NATO is a highly aggressive and dangerous organization and that Western states, especially the Nope Biden Is Not My President shirt so you should to go to store and get this US and Britain, are not to be trusted -they talk a good game about the importance of rules and laws but don’t hesitate to break them when they want, thereby rendering those rules all but useless and not much protection against illegal Western actions. Again, trust is a major issue here – from the Russian perspective, WEstern actors have proven over and over that they are untrustworthy. It is important to note that throughout the entire 24 year period since NATO started expanding, Russians have made it clear that they regard this as a hostile act that is designed to hem them in and threaten their security. Given Russia’s history of being invaded, this is a reasonable concern. It is also apparent that a lot of the US’s actions were, indeed, designed to hem Russia in and undermine its ability to exert influence in the larger world as well as its immediate neighborhood.On the other side, the Ukraine and other Eastern European states have a long history of being dominated and occupied by Russia. It is perfectly reasonable that they would seek protection against this by joining NATO. Of course, this was only possible to do when Russia was too weak to stop them. Russia is stronger now but it also has particular historical ties to the Ukraine and it considers “losing” Ukraine to a military force that is intent on containing it as simply an intolerable security threat. From this overview, it is evident that Russia has valid security concerns and good reasons to believe that NATO and the US are real dangers to it. It is also apparent why Ukraine would want protection from Russia. What is also clear is that the US really did exploit Russian weakness. NATO was under no obligation to expand or offer membership to states right on Russia’s border. It could be argued that the West could have been much more sensitive to Russian security concerns and historical perspectives, but that would assume that containing Russia was not the goal all along, and I think that is a misjudgment. What should have been done is that Ukraine could have been declared a neutral state and the offer to join NATO should have been withdrawn.

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Others have pointed out that Ukraine should have the Nope Biden Is Not My President shirt so you should to go to store and get this right to make its own sovereign decisions. I agree, but that position overlooks the compelling case that NATO really is threatening. The case has also been made that the US would never tolerate a similar situation in its own backyard -for example, if Canada joined an explicitly anti-US military alliance, the US would act to block that. Doing so would certainly violate Canadian sovereignty, but it is also certain the US would so anyway. Given the US’ long history of violating the sovereignty of other states, this is a near certainty. It is important to note that this does not justify such an action, but it is important to have “strategic empathy” to understand how the other side sees the situation. This is especially important when the “other side” -in this case, the West – has established that it does not follow the rules. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is absolutely illegal under international law and an act of aggression. For the reasons noted above, Russia has a much stronger case that Ukraine’s NATO ambitions constituted a real threat. Contrast this to the US invasion of Iraq, where the US claimed that it was threatened by Iraq but could not make any credible case that this was really true. Russia’s decision to invade Ukraine will be a disaster for everyone involved, but I suspect the only viable solution in the end will be a neutral Ukraine and a moratorium on the expansion of NATO. However, because of the violence, I suspect that NATO will be “revitalized.” All of this could probably have been avoided if the West had acted with more prudence and made an effort to understand how it is viewed in other parts of the world and why. Often, the negative picture of Western actions is supported by the facts.

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