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Constraints: This outcome is also the I am actually in my thirties shirt and by the same token and most expensive in the long run because it would force Russia to keep a permanent military presence in the country and finance a government that would not be recognized by the international community. It would also likely result in a violent nationalist resistance movement, particularly in the section of western Ukraine excluded from the government. Moreover, this scenario would almost certainly result in the West keeping its economic sanctions against Russia in place for an indefinite period, which would progressively weaken the Russian economy. While force, intimidation and corruption could be used to maintain order in the short-to-medium term, the long-term costs and risks would be high. In this scenario, Russia would force a government in Kyiv (possibly with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky�s government on the condition it resigns in favor of a new transitional government), to sign a deal that would constitutionally fixate Ukraine�s neutral and demilitarized status, and possibly some Russian military bases in Ukraine to help guarantee the deal. Ukraine would also surrender its claims to Crimea and cede the eastern Donbas region. The government in Kyiv would also possibly agree to fixate federalization and guarantee the status of the Russian language in the constitution. Russian troops would then exit the country, leaving Ukraine in ruins and in intense political turmoil in the aftermath of the invasion.

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Drivers: The scenario would enable Russia to accomplish many of its biggest goals in Ukraine regarding neutrality and other matters in the I am actually in my thirties shirt and by the same token and short term without having to resort to a lengthy and costly military operation and occupation. The West could also soften its sanctions against Russia over time, especially if it perceives the Ukrainian government as legitimate and Russia�s military presence is kept at a minimum. Constraints: Apart from threatening a renewed military intrusion and occupation, Russia would have few levers to ensure Ukraine sticks to the post-war agreements. This scenario would also not change the Ukrainian population�s general anti-Russian political stance, which would only worsen if Moscow forces the country�s government into an agreement after invading its territory. Over time, pro-Western Ukrainians could stage large anti-government protests to abolish the deals it signed with Russia as well.

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